Bosnia abandoned by the West once again. What do we do?

by Bakir Ovčina

Bosnia is almost at war again. Although it has not come it to, this is the closest we have been since 1995.

On the one hand, the Serb leader and member of the Bosnian Presidency Milorad Dodik has threatened (again) to withdraw the Serb entity (Republika Srpska) from the join institutions – the army, government, judiciary, etc. and declare independence. This is highly illegal and in clear violation of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, although seemingly underway. The (international) response was to introduce sanctions against Dodik, whose long-term effects remain to be seen.

On the other hand, Bosnian Croats, which share the second entity, the Federation of B&H with the Bosniaks, have been up in arms, as their main party, the HDZ-BiH lost the 2018 Croat Member of the Presidency position to Željko Komšić. Feeling un-represented, they want a separate, legal and electoral regime to make sure they are in power in the regions contiguously inhabited by Croats, a step towards further decentralization and the infamous “third entity.” They threaten to boycott the 2022 elections otherwise. Croatia has jumped on the bandwagon to promote sectarianism, as President Milanović made allies with Dodik and his Croat proxy and HDZ-BiH leader Čović.

Where are the Western powers – the US, UK, Germany, EU in all this? They too have been involved, but it seems suspiciously in concert with the Serbo-Croatian axis! Munich 1938 begone, as day-in-day-out Western diplomats fly into Sarajevo International hoping to appease either secessionism or sectarianism, or both.

Not to dwell much on the comprehensive failure of the B-list personnel, on Nov 30^th 2021, the European External Action Service director Angelina Eichhorst and Matthew Palmer, Special US State Department Envoy for Electoral Reform, argued that failure to compromise with the HDZ could lead the country to ruin.  Thus, the current Western policy not only epitomizes hypocrisy, but also a damning cyclicality, in how they channeled Radovan Karadžić’s infamous speech from 1991, threatening the disappearance of the Muslim people. Palmer, unsurprisingly, has a Serbian wife and even proposed to splinter the Bosnian patriot bloc in the negotiations! This thankfully failed in the fruitless Neum negotiations, as a new, sectarian electoral law was thankfully not agreed upon. In response, the “Croat People’s Assembly,” revealed their hand, threatening to kickstart “a new institutional and territorial organization,” hoping to come one step closer to their 1990s war goals, for which the political leadership of the para-state was jailed for joint criminal enterprise. A similar thing happened in 2001, when the HDZ unilaterally proclaimed the dreaded third entity/parastate. The international response then was the comprehensive removal of many of the offenders. What will the response be this time if it goes so far, one can wonder?

What is to be done? Some would say bolster the Office of the High Representative or the EU army presence to keep Deyton afloat.  However, Dayton is the problem. Dayton created Dodik, who used to be a moderate. If we could turn back time to when High Representative Ashdown ruled with a strong backing and military presence, against the local troublemakers, things would be better. Yet, just like Dayton, it was a stopgap measure. Not only is Sir Ashdown dead, but times have changed, and Bosnia is far off anyone’s radar. In a perfect world, as Hoare argues plainly, the Western Allies should use force to bring Dodik and his lackeys to heel, or proclaim a new, RS-free Bosnia. Will that happen, however? No, it will not.

On the other hand, the Russians, and the Chinese seem to be handed a win yet again. Across the border, in Montenegro, Belgrade continues the endless push to a Greater Serbia this time through a policy dubbed “The Serb World.”

But what about the “Bosnians,” the odd-two million Bosniaks, their Serb and Croat compatriots who owe their allegiance to Bosnia? For now, we must stand firm and close ranks, regardless of party, ideology, or creed. If the situation escalates again, (which I doubt), we will be alone once again. “See you in 20 years,” quipped the Bosnians in 1995, and perhaps they were not wrong. Always in times of uncertainty we look to the past for security and reassurance, but the only reassurance one can get in this case are the words of David Owen: “Don’t dream dreams. The West is not going to come and save you.”

Still, I truly hope I am wrong and that the UK’s new appointment of Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach as envoy to the Western Balkans will precipitate some change. The move was followed by the new German government with another special envoy, Manuel Sarrazin.

In any case, the words of Emir Suljagić provide guidance: “if these threats continue and the international community refuses to respect her obligations towards the Dayton Peace Agreement, we will have to ask them to get out of our way. Never again shall villains ascend the hills of Sarajevo and shoot our children.” The enemies of Bosnia played their hand 30 years ago and they failed. Whenever they play their hand again, they will fail, for it is up to the Bosnians to defend Bosnia and fight on, like last time, if necessary for years, if necessary, alone.